Top 5 Overrated Prospects

Most Overrated Prospects

First, let me say that all of these prospects have great potential and I believe with hard work they all have a chance to be premier players in the league. But I am going purely off of the actual talent level these prospects posses and not what they could be if they trained with Tim Grover 6 hours a day for a year.

5. Trey Burke

Hate to have him on the list because he's a leader and a competitor, but he just shouldn't go in the top 8. He has good stats, but he had a loaded team around him. He has a nice mid range game, but he struggles against teams with size. Worst of all is his defense, I know everyone believes no one plays D in the NBA, but I guarantee you the Magic would have locked up Louisville last season. He's not crafty on D, has slow feet, no size, and can't make up for it with speed or hops. Just isn't talented enough to go in the top 5 like; most think he should.

4. Shane Larkin

Someone is going to get burned by this one year wonder. Durand Scott was actually the best player on the team, but Larkin received all the notoriety. Had an impressive showing at the athletic test at the combine, but in my opinion it's a red flag. It's kind of like Blaine Gabbert when he came out in the NFL draft. Everyone was shocked by the numbers because the he didn't look athletic on film. Well, FILM DON'T LIE! Larkin doesn't look athletic on film because his athleticism doesn't translate to the court. To make matters worse, he's a worse version of Burke who actually has a track record. He's just not a first round pick.

3. Steven Adams

Adams makes the list not because of the statistics, but because of his issues. His problem during his Frosh. campaign wasn't that he looked lost or needed to put on weight, things that can be corrected at the next level, but it was his drive. He just didn't seem that motivated; which always spells trouble. Since he's a 7 footer, someone will give him that guaranteed contract and  be disappointed unless he decides to turn it on.

2. Alex Len

Len has a some intriguing tools, but he doesn't know how to use them. Plus, he's still learning the game and his learning curve is much greater than people believe. He needs a few more years to develop than expected and most teams at the top of the draft aren't expecting that and will not give him the needed time.

1. Otto Porter

As much as I would want Porter on my team, I wouldn't want to build my team around him. As much as a contender would love to have him, most teams in the lottery can't afford the luxury of using a pick on a glue guy. He can knock down an open shot now and then, but he really won't take too many wings off the dribble. He's a good defender and hard worker, but if your team needs scoring, he will not give that to you; which most lottery teams need.  The only exception in the lottery is OKC, but he doesn't project well at the 2 and I doubt Durant playing the 4 all season just to accommodate Porter on the wing is their best option. Maybe one of the teams in the lottery can afford a scorer in free agency can pick him up, because most of the others will be greatly disappointed.

Top 5 Potential Draft Steals

Top 5 Potential Draft Steals

(Based on Consensus Mock Draft Positions)

5. Ricardo Ledo SG

Like a lot of the players in this draft, Ledo has huge Boom or Bust potential. Missing the entire 2012-2013 NCAA season and his highest level of competition is high school, but in high school he went against the top prospects and showed he has an elite offensive skill set. Ledo has great size at the 2 with good athleticism and can score in a hurry. He can score off the bounce, pull up, and knock down the open shot. If he can bounce back from sitting out a full season, he will be a solid scorer in the league.

Check out Ledo against top prospects prior to his H.S. senior season:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcM-8pRYogQ

4. Mason Plumlee PF/C

Plumlee improved on a lot of the knocks against him. He has a reliable post game and is improving his free throw shooting. He will be a great rebounder in the league and is a very good defender. Scouts think just because you are young you have potential and just because you are old you don't. Nerlens Noel is not better than Plumlee, but he will go well before Plumelee. He is a great defender and and runs the floor very well. Any team would be lucky to add him to the mix.

Plumlee senior season highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2B904xd28Y4

3. Giannis Adetokoubo F/G

Giannis can legitamately play the 2-4 on the NBA level. Very raw, and still needs time, but upside is huge. Has a decent shot that will improve with more reps and has a knack to get to the rim. His athleticism is a little overrated, but his length is freakish. He is worth a lottery pick since he can be stashed and develop overseas for a few years.

Giannis highlight reel from his low level Euro team:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tmy5cigYHyo

2. C.J. McCollum SG/PG

McCollum has serious superstar potential with little risk. He is criticized for going to a small school, but he has done great against every big program he has went against. Can shoot from everywhere and has a sick handle that makes him deadly on the offensive end. Players with this scoring capability should not drop out of the top 5; let alone the top 10. Look for McCollum to run away with the ROY award with his unique combination of scoring ability and creating for others.

Check out the best scorer in this year's draft:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C1IgVnleed4


1. Cody Zeller PF/C

Who doesn't want a seven footer who runs like a gazelle, hustles, is a top rebounder and defender, can create for himself, and can knock down the open 15-footer? Obviously every mock drafter because you rarely see Zeller in the top 5 in a draft that many analyst consider historically weak. Zeller is a top-5 pick in almost every draft in recent history and is suffering from coming back an extra year to get over analyzed.

Check out the top player on my draft board:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wvb2SNJ9T4w

First Round cont.

15. Milwaukee Bucks- Giannis Adetkoubo B+

This team needs everything because they will lose Monta and J.J. this year and Jennings next year. Season's over before it begins, so why not build for the future. Giannis is the definition of raw, but with a few years stashed overseas he could develop into a perennial All-Star.

Strengths: Crazy length and nice frame, will be able to put on enough wait to be the size of Serge w/o losing any mobility. Projects well at the NBA level at the 2, 3, or 4. Decent jump shot, nice handle, good shot blocker, very good at getting to the basket.

Weaknesses: Technique and awareness is at the level of a top high school junior prospect.

Rookie: Will not be here for a few years
Ceiling: Superstar Caliber
Prediction: A few All-Star appearances

16. Boston Celtics- Tony Mitchell B

With the Big 3 a thing of the past, the C's need to shore up the frontcourt and Mitchell has the athleticism and versatility to fit well. This can turn into an exciting team with Rondo and Bradley pushing the pace with Mitchell as the 3/4.

Strengths: Nice size and very good athleticism. Decent post game against smaller defenders and can take slower defenders off the dribble.

Weaknesses: Good jump shot for a 4 but only average for a 3. Much better off the ball than with the ball in his hands.

Rookie: Starter
Ceiling: Starter
Prediction: Career rotation guy


17. Atlanta Hawks- Sergey Karasev B+

Josh Smith is probably gone, so it may be time to look for the future. Sergey is a smooth 2/3 with a nice stroke and sets his teammates up well. Will give the Hawks the 3 point threat they lost in Johnson.

Strengths: Is a great all-around offensive player. Great shooter and passer and create for self and others. Will knock down the open J. Already a seasoned vet overseas.

Weaknesses: One of the worst defender's in the draft and the least athletic, but has started to develop craftiness to make up for this.

Rookie: Stash a year or two
Ceiling: 3rd option starter
Prediction: Solid starter

18. Atlanta Hawks- Ricardo Ledo B

High risk high reward pick. The Hawks have to roll the dice because the franchise is on the brink. Ledo hasn't played since his high school senior season, but if he puts in the work he has a game reminiscent of their previous SG.

Strengths: Flat out scorer with great athleticism.

Weaknesses: Hasn't played at a high enough level. Was a black hole in high school. May not ever recover from sitting out a year.

Rookie: Bench
Ceiling: All-Star appearance
Prediction: Rotation player

19. Cleveland Cavaliers- C.J. Leslie B

Tweener that the Cavs can gamble on. On the small side for a 4 and and lacks the skill set for a 3, but his length, athleticism, and ability to guard the 3/4 will be of great benefit to the Cavs.

Strengths: Great athlete and finishes strong at the rim. Very good shot blocker and runs the floor very well.

Weaknesses: Doesn't have the skills to play the 3 and too small to be a 4. Ball handling not good enough to play the 3 and can't float on the wing. Can guard some 4's but gives up extremely too much height.

Rookie: Spark plug (a lot of exciting plays in few minutes)
Ceiling: Starter
Prediction: Rotation player

20. Chicago Bulls- Rudy Gorbert C

Bulls need a back up big man because it seems the SG need has been filled(see Jimmy Butler in the playoffs). Maybe Rudy can develop behind Noah like Asik did, and maybe the Bulls will learn to keep their big men.

Strengths: 7'1" with huge wingspan, eats up a lot of space and a decent finisher. Good shot blocker. Big hands and will catch the ball.

Weaknesses: Soft, defeats the purpose of being so big if little guys beat up on him. No athleticism.

Rookie: Bench
Ceiling: Starter
Prediction: Career back up

21. Utah Jazz- Archie Goodwin C

Archie has had a rough year, but the talent is there. Can be a huge addition to a team that lacks bench scoring on the wings. Can bring a change of pace if swapped with Gordon.

Strengths: Good at creating own shot with decent athleticism.

Weaknesses: Not consistent and gets down on self at times; can improve with time. Not a good enough scorer when that is supposed to be his strength.

Rookie: Rotation
Ceiling: Starter
Prediction: Career 6th man

22. Brooklyn Nets- Mason Plumlee B-

This is weird to say of the #22 pick, but this puts the Nets over the hump. Brings everything to the table that Evans does, but with more size and an extremely better offensive game. Not good a stretching the floor, but with Lopez who can, he can set up camp in the paint.

Strengths: Much improved post game, will make smaller 4's pay and can find the open shooter out of the post. Runs the floor as well as Zeller and a great finisher.

Weaknesses: Terrible shooter and still improving on free throws.

Rookie: Starter
Ceiling: Top defender
Prediction: Career starter

23. Indiana Pacers- Steven Adams C

What do the Pacers need? How about another big bruising C to alleviate Hibbert. Adams has the size and the talent but does he have the will to take advantage of the lack of decent bigs in the NBA.

Strengths: Great size talented player. Nice post game and good rebounder. An asset on the defensive end.

Weaknesses: Does not assert himself at all. Constantly defers. Not as slow as most big men his size, but still too slow for teams going small.

Rookie: Bench
Ceiling: All-Star
Prediction: Spot starter

24. New York Knicks- Kelly Olynyk C

With Amare always injured, this pick gives the Knicks a viable option for a big. This team has taken  playing small to the extreme, but Kelly blends a nice offensive skill set with great length and gives them much needed size. Can become an instant impact, maybe even a better Ryan Anderson. Playing along side Chandler will hide both of there deficiencies and take this team to the next level.

Strengths: Highly skilled big who can score in many ways. Great height and length. Can stretch the defense or put up buckets in the post.

Weaknesses: Bad 1-on-1 defender, but length can make up for it. Very bad athleticism.

Rookie: Starter
Ceiling: Solid Starter
Prediction:6th man

25. L.A. Clippers- Deshaun Thomas C+

Clips need a scorer, Thomas needs a team that can hide his defensive deficiencies. With Griffin and Jordan behind him; he has that covered. He can flat out score. The most unguardable player in the NCAA last season and will translate well in the NBA.

Strengths: Will score no matter what. An underrated shooter and doesn't need size advantage to score on you in the post. Decent rebounder.

Weaknesses: Just will not be able to guard players at the NBA level (But his offense makes up for it).

Rookie: Starter
Ceiling: Go to guy
Prediction: Solid starter with decent scoring stats

26. Denver Nuggets- Ray McCallum C+

Highly underrated PG. Has the skills to be a solid player if not asked to do too much. Miller maybe leaving, he can step into that role next year and develop behind Lawson.

Strengths: Good athlete with solid PG skills. Good court vision and a good passer.

Weaknesses: A bit undersized and not a consistent shooter. Not really great at anything and doesn't use athleticism in the game. Not sure if he forces the issue naturally or just because his team wasn't very good.

Rookie: Backup
Ceiling: Solid Starter
Prediction: Backup PG

27. Minnesota Timberwolves- Otto Porter C

With the earlier pick; Minny found some O, this pick gives them that glue guy that everyone needs. Good defender and can hit the open shot. Brings intensity to a team that's hungry for a change.

Strengths: Very good defender and is a Jack of all trades on offense. Solid rebounder and can be used in a fast pace or good in the half court. Great competitor and leader.

Weaknesses: Not really good at anything on the offensive end, but not bad. Will never be the focal point of the offense, but he can find many ways to score. More fitting for a glue guy role than a franchise cornerstone role.

Rookie: Rotation player
Ceiling: Solid Starter
Prediction: Spot Starter

28. San Antonio Spurs- Lucas Nogueira (BeBe) C+

Ideal scenario for BeBe. He can go to a team that has legends there and can work on his number 1 issue; his maturity. He will eventually take Splitter's spot or fill in for Tim when he retires.

Strengths: Good athleticism and runs the floor well. Good size and length and a good finisher.

Weaknesses: Has developed a super star personality before he has even entered the NBA. Considered soft and having a poor work ethic; but may be due to being a young pro.

Rookie: Stashed
Ceiling: All-Star (Yes, I put bigs with any talent with this as there ceiling because centers suck right now and Hibbert proved that if you impose your will, no matter how talented those smaller guys are; they just can't stop you. You can't teach height!)
Prediction: Sarter

29. Oklahoma City Thunder- Jeff Withey C

Kendrick needs to go. He's one of the worst C's in the league, he has terrible defense and brings nothing on the offensive end. Withey brings great shot blocking ability and a decent finisher. Withey and Collison will round out that frontcourt much better than it's current center.

Strengths: Great shot blocker with great length.

Weaknesses: Suspect post game and not good when creating for self or others.

Rookie: Backup
Ceiling: Blocks leader
Prediction: Backup

30. Phoenix Suns- Solomon Hill C+

The Suns need talent and Hill is a versatile player. Can knock down the open shot consistently and a good defender. Suns are looking to trade Dudley and Hill can fill his role as there all-around dependable guy.

Strengths: Good passer, shooter, and scorer. Can be the missing starter or 6th man a team is looking for.

Weaknesses: Not great at anything and fades at times. Much more talented than his four year career at Zone shows.

Rookie: Rotation
Ceiling: Solid Starter
Prediction: Bench

Lottery

Here is the Keymaster's first NBA mock draft. My draft goes by where players should go by the evaluations done by us at true talent scouting.

Round 1


1. Cleveland Cavaliers-Ben McLemore B+ Pick should be traded.

I know he's not at the top on our big board, but Zeller will not perform while having to steal minutes from his brother . This Will give Kyrie someone to knock down open 3's.

Strengths: A good versatile scorer, great off the ball, on the ball, and runs the floor well. Has the potential to become a top 5 defensive player at his position.

Weaknesses: Ceiling is All-Star level, but film shows he is a very good 6th man on a playoff team or best player on a bad team e.g. Jamaal Crawford. Fades at times.

Rookie: Contributing Starter
Ceiling: All-Star
Prediction: Career as solid starter. Poor man's Ray Allen (Pre-Celtics) minus creating for others.

2. Orlando Magic-Victor Oladipo B+ Pick should be traded.

Again not sticking to the big board. Magic could shop Aaron and Oladipo will evolve into an upgrade.

Strengths:Will come into the league as one of the premier defensive players. Knocks down the open shot and his great athleticism translates well on the court.

Weaknesses:Still learning to create his own shot, so at times he predetermines what he is going to do which results in turnovers.

Rookie: Key Contributor
Ceiling: Perennial All-Star
Prediction: Tony Allen with a much better offensive game.

3. Washington Wizards-Cody Zeller A

Best prospect and gives Wall a big man that runs the floor. Scouts are over critiquing him.

Strengths:Can guard the 4/5 well. Great low post offense and works hard.

Weaknesses:Needs to work on shot from 15+.

Rookie: Key Contributor
Ceiling: Perennial All-Star
Prediction: Will make a few All-Star games, good overall career.

4. Charlotte Bobcats-Alex Len B+

Gives Kimba help. Still pretty raw, but will blossom in a few years.

Strengths: Not awkward like most bigs his size. Will be able to use versatility well in a league starved of big men. Can put on more weight and not lose his athleticism. Good shooter for position.

Weaknesses: Needs time and experience.

Rookie: Rotation Guy
Ceiling: All-Star
Prediction: Will make a huge difference because of lack of bigs i.e. Roy Hibbert.

5.  Phoenix Suns- Nerlens Noel B+

This team wants to move a few vets and with this pick they can move Gortat or Scola. Noel is a great shot blocker, but is still very raw defensively because he goes after everything quite recklessly. His limitations offensively will be covered because his athleticism and ability to finish will meld well with Dragic's ability in the pick and roll game.

Strengths: Great shot blocker with great athleticism. Runs the floor very well and his athleticism translates to the floor. Very good finisher and great height and length. Good rebounder.

Weaknesses: No shooting ability, no low post O, can't create for self. Very light and small frame, will be limited in amount of weight to put on.

Rookie: Rotational Player
Ceiling: Top Defensive player
Prediction: Solid career as starter and backup

6. New Orleans Pelicans- Anthony Bennett B+

Tired of people trying to replace Vasquez, he's solid and PG's in this draft at best may only become slightly better them him someday. Bennett will give them the extra offense they need and his defensive problems can be hidden thanks to Davis.

Strengths: Mismatch waiting to happen. Dominates players in the post, can stretch the floor, and if you can stop him in the post he'll switch and take you off the dribble.

Weaknesses: Gives up height at the 4 and slow feet for the 3, so will have to develop some craftiness on the defensive end. Has durability issues, slows towards the end of the season.

Rookie: Key Contributor
Ceiling: All-Star
Prediction: A solid player, will be good offensively and will be a defensive liability.

7. Sacramento Kings- Shabazz Muhammad B

Another player over-critiqued. In a ill-suited system with other scoring options and still averaged almost 18 ppg. Improved shooting and is a scorer. If Tyreke Evans is out this will be a good pick up.

Strengths: A scorer and has developed his catch and shoot ability. Great finisher big time competitor. Good defensive ability a can guard the 3 though a bit undersized.

Weaknesses: Not a playmaker and not a good passer. Not a good shooter for a player who's calling card is scoring. Lacks size that may give trouble for larger 3's

Rookie: Works way into rotation
Ceiling: Reliable 2nd option
Prediction: 6th man that is a good scorer off the bench and good defensively

8. Detroit Pistons- Kentavious Caldwell Pope B+

Move him to the 3 and this team will be scary in the future. KCP can score every way for a wing and will be a good defensive player.

Strengths: Pure scorer, good defensive player. Good athleticism can play slow paced or fast offense.

Weaknesses: From my film he looks like a black hole and will not create for others. Looks good, but not great.

Rookie: Key Contributor
Ceiling: All-Star Appearance
Prediction: Solid starter

9. Minnesota Timberwolves- C.J. McCollum A

Finally, I take my 2nd player off the board. Falls because he needs to go to a backcourt with a very good defensive player. This makes this backcourt scary. This guy is an unstoppable scorer with great handle. Can play the 1/2 well, but with Rubio all his strengths are able to be focused on and weaknesses hidden.

Strengths: Will enter the league as one of the best shooters. Can score in every way no matter who's on him. Good passer and plays passing lanes well.

Weaknesses: Small at the 2 and passing is secondary to him. Gambles on D.

Rookie: ROY
Ceiling: MVP
Prediction: Perennial All-Star

10. Portland Trailblazers- Glen Rice Jr. B

Very solid core 5, but no depth. Adding rice will help and he could develop into a starter and move the experienced Matthews to the bench. Will add much needed off the bench scoring.

Strengths: Good scorer with good athleticism has the tools to develop into a decent defensive player.

Weaknesses: Really just a decent scorer and will never be a #1 option on a championship caliber team.

Rookie: Rotational player
Ceiling: Good scorer on a decent team
Prediction: Will be a Marco Belinelli type of player

11. Philadelphia 76ers- Tim Hardaway Jr. C

They need help now and drafting one of the higher rated foreign players won't benefit them until 2-3 years from now, and there's no telling how the roster will look then. Tim is a scorer who is a very good shooter which works perfectly with Turner and Holiday who will create a lot of shots for him.

Strengths: Shooter with good athleticism and tools to develop good defensively.

Weaknesses: Takes plays off on defense and is more of a streaky shooter than pure.

Rookie: Rotational player
Ceiling: Solid starter
Prediction: Rotational and situation scorer

12. Oklahoma City Thunder- Reggie Bullock C

Perfect pick because he merges the abilities of what Martin has offensively and what people think Thabs brings on the defensive end.

Strengths: Athletic shooter runs the floor well and a solid ball handler with great size at the 2.

Weaknesses: Injury history have taken away from his gifts may never recover. Grade is this low because of what he could have been.

Rookie: Starter key contributor
Ceiling: 2nd option
Prediction: Rotational player

13. Dallas Mavericks- Michael Carter Williams B+

Dream scenario, because the coach hates Darren and a good talent comes to replace. The best pure PG in the draft, he instinctively gives open looks for players around him. Dirk will not have to create so much on his own and the Carter will bring the D to Big D.

Strengths: Great size and athleticism. Pure passer sets up his teammates well. Size and instincts gives players fits on both ends of the floor.

Weaknesses: Bad shooter which makes him easier to defend. Indecisive at times.

Rookie: First team
Ceiling: All-Star
Prediction: Solid career starter

14. Utah Jazz- Trey Burke C

Utah desperately needs a PG so they grab the guy with all the hype. Trey has the intangibles, but the skill level doesn't match. He's a winner and can hit the big shot, but his defense is deplorable and will make a mediocre PG have a good night. Fits the team's immediate needs at the PG more than a Lorenzo Brown or Eric Green.

Strengths: Great pick and role player can hit the long bomb and has a great mid-range game. Great leader and keeps his team in the game.

Weaknesses: Poor defense and will be exploited. Lacks the speed and quickness to keep up with most NBA PG's.

Rookie: Starter
Ceiling: Starter
Prediction: Solid rotation guy